Yesterday in Rajya Sabha , in response to the criticism on the President’s address, the honourable finance minister said, that, we have already lost 10 years. and if further action is not taken, India will miss the low-cost manufacturing story.
Time was, that in 2004-05 . the poorest state in India was Odisha[known as Orissa in those days. The National survey based on tendulkar committee recommendations pegged it’s poverty at 57%. Over a period of 5 years i.e 2009-10, this poverty rate reduced to 36%. This was an impressive change. But, it was still among the highest poverty rates in the country. How does this translate into numbers. for a population of 4 crore, 36% would be approximately 1.5 crore people.
Now, in the summer of 2005, the biggest investment to have ever reached India was announced. This was by the South Korean company POSCO. The expected Rupee conversion was 50,000 crores. To explain the size of the figure. The farm loan waiver of 2009 across India was 10,000 crores worth. Now, in 2010, a few things happened. We got a new environment minister. Mr., Jairam Ramesh. He went ahead on a crusade, which seemed to be heavily targeted towards Odisha. First the Saxena Committee blocked environmental clearance for POSCO. And then, to facilitate the soldier in delhi moment for Rahul Gandhi, The Vedanta Project in Kalahandi was blocked. If the younger guys don't know Kalahandi, this is the same district which had stories of kids being sold for 10 bucks in the 80’s.
But, that is the past. What happened because of this? Growth fell down due to investment not reaching implementation.Fair to say, at least 2-3% growth was lost over 5 years. How does this affect the common man? Growth fell down, the Rupee depreciated. This cause the Petroleum price in the imports to increase aka diesel price too. End result high inflation. This diesel price increase over a period along with factors created vegetables with onions being sold at rs. 80 a kilo. It is fair to say, the Congress/UPA lost because of very high inflation. The scams were another talking point.
Why am I repeating recent history? The new Govt has come on the top of high expectations. Inflation reduction will be the primary target. Logically, if one investment moves forward, this could change the growth trajectory completely. But here is the clincher. The Honourable minister for tribal affairs has made a statement mentioned in the link. http://www.tathya.in/new/story.aspx?sno=9110 . What are the repercussions? Effectively investment will stop completely in Odisha. Mines which can be exploited to create capacity and hence, employment will lie stagnant. And someday down the line, the Green countries will kick in and we will become liable of sanctions, if we extract our own iron-ore for our own steel. Now, a project like POSCO could well reduce the poverty from mid 30’s to sub 20’s. That is a large number. Let us look at this politically.
For all the chatter, about people’s movements, if Odisha people actually hated industry, they would never have voted BJD. It is fair to add, that they have been, a little quiet in UPA-2. This was after Mr. Jairam Ramesh’s shenanigans. But, I guess they realised there is no hope. The honourable prime minister has spoken the right things. He wants to see Eastern India grow. Odisha is definitely eastern india. He wants us to do value addition. for example, take iron-ore and prepare steel. i guess, if we have a steel plant, car manufacturers might turn up. Today, Odisha’s growth is driven by mining. They actually had a low growth year when Supreme court banned mining.
Even if you look at the Political history, when, the BJD-BJP breakup happened in 2009, there was a sense, that BJD betrayed BJP. But, the alternative was the feeling that, BJP seems to be obstructing development in Odisha. across projects. I guess, that led to it’s downfall in last elections. As a matter of fact, even the local body elections, BJP was in very bad shape.a sub-10% was it’s vote share in that elections. It was a symbol of the Modi wave[yes a wave], that it reached 22%. Why? Modi talked development. And people believed him. Now, if the minister talks the same old propaganda, what will be the result? Most of us believe BJP needs a good leader in Odisha.
Mr. Jual Oram does not sound that sort of a person at all. He was a the minister for tribal affairs in the last election. People really don't remember what he did. These ministries should go from being ceremonial and work towards real upliftment of tribals. Lip service on tribals is not worth it. I would personally, like the minister to focus on
a) Railway infrastructure in tribal districts.
b) health[IMR, MMR, Nutrition]
c) BPL status at district level and methods of increase.
d) broadband infrastructure.
I think he will be a gem of a minister if he campaigns for funds beyond his constituency to all tribal districts in the country. I will be very happy to name these districts.
On a cynical note , the BJD would support industry, but at a political level, they have 20 seats out of 21. Why would they want to change status quo? If BJP wants to improve, they need to change this. Please focus on Odisha. It makes economic, political and social sense to get investment. If a flagship investment is discouraged, this will have a cascading effect on other projects. And one big investment can make a lot of difference.
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