While the country is keeping a close track on UP elections, Stunning news came from Odisha. BJP had a very small presence in local bodies previously. They had 36/856 seats. Currently Panchayat Polls have been going on in phases.
The BJP has come up with a stupendous performance in Odisha. They have got, a total of 197 seats in Only 3 phases out of a 5 phase election.
What does this mean for the electoral dynamics of Odisha and India as whole, particularly for 2019?
It is well know that a Modi wave in 2014 contributed to 73 seats along with 32 seats in Bihar. It is unrealistic to expect a similar performance in UP. and Bihar has a very strong alliance against Modi now.
So, increasing the Catchment area is a very important Goal for BJP/NDA .
Question is, Can Odisha (not
Orissa) contribute ?
The dynamics of the state of Odisha are contributed from BBSR(Bhubaneswar) . It is the bureaucratic capital of the state with enormous cultural heritage. The Officialdom plays a strong role in maintaining BJDs power. Ofcourse, it is helped by the fact, that, The main opposition has been in life support since, 2000 except for a brief period in 2009. That merits a separate blog.
Now, current BJP performance states that, it has picked up areas across the state by some clever campaigning in places like Mayurbhanj , Balangir and Kalahandi. But, 2/3rd of the state are in the Mahanadi delta, and they hold disproportionate power. If someone wins the coastal districts, he will surely cross 15 seats in the state.[Lok Sabha] . In fact, Other than 2009, Odisha has been known to give sweeping mandates from a long time, like 20-1 scenario.
But, some ground rules need to be followed.
It is a reality that Odisha is one of the poorer states . But, this is not palatable to the normal Odia. In fact, statistically, if one takes out the Tribal districts, Odisha will actually be quite advanced cultural and educationally. Districts like khurda [Near BBSR] have 91% urban literacy while Jagatsinghpur has 86% rural literacy.
Hence, the conundrum for a politician is very messy. He cant say, Odisha is poor. That hurts the ego of the softspoken Odia . But, then, he is fiercely proud of his language. Making a mistake like typing Orissa or Oriya or Udiya is a recipe for disaster. This does not mean, that, there is language chauvinism. You can easily get along in Most urban areas of the state with English, Hindi or Odia[Not
Oriya] .
Similarly attacking Naveen Patnaik for his Odia skills is a big No-No. It sounds like an easy target, might even get some gains, but state level sweeps will be elusive if that happens.. Let us also not forget, Odisha has a history of politicians who came from a Literary background, Poets, authors etc. Their average performance was just too pathetic in the administration. And Ofcourse, the Biju patnaik legacy looms large . He is pretty much a superman. Lot of people feel, he did not get enough respect outside Odisha.
So, in this cessapool of negativity, how does one win?
By a Positive campaign. Odisha has a hidden fascination with Industry. It pisses them off, that everyone says, Odisha is poor with so many Mineral resources. What No one understands is, that, these mineral resources never gained Odisha much. This Tweet might explain that somewhat.
Year - 2007 ,
Iron-ore Market price, - 10K INR per tonne.
Odisha gets - Rs. 27 per tonne.
No wonder Odisha is poor. twitter.com/rishibagree/st…
What might help is a campaign which focuses on Odisha’s maritime past? The Old memories of Sadhabas who used to travel to Bali still exists in their festivals. Bali Jatra is a very popular festival. And the food is also quite awesome.
Also, There is a need to tap on to the diaspora of Odias. You will find them everywhere. A lot of entrepreneuers in Bangalore have Odia roots. It will help if a reach out happens to them.
Also, some deft political management is required. Odisha is intrinsically religious with, Hinduism at the core of the heritage. But, Religious polarisation will not work. In fact, BJP suffered badly post the Kandhamal Riots. The perception was that, they gave Odisha a bad name. That has changed now. But, the core of Odisha has always been sympathetic to BJP. If BJP can respect that, they can sweep the state.
BJP has actually been quite good for Odisha. They have given significant budgets for the Railways in Odisha, but, implementation is still a concern. Some focus will go a long way.
Naveen Patnaik has been good for Odisha after the disastrous Congress years. And People like Jairam Ramesh from Congress have not helped matters. In essence a positive campaign will go a long way. The state needs a vision. A vision which involves, Industry, culture and basic religiosity.
If they do that, and invite a few good leaders, they can get 20 seats. The Vidhan sabha is more complex, but, Lok Sabha is possible. Question is, will BJP in Odisha have the right vision? And not make mistakes.
(Bynote : The Mahanadi issue will be crucial in this) .
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