Uttar Pradesh is normally a Tripolar contest and elections are about Momentum. In 2007, The elections started in Western UP. BSP Took a lead and that helped it reach simple majority. In Today's whatsapp world, the momentum shifts even faster. Sometimes in a Matter of seconds.
But, in all this chaos, some rules tend to apply with applicable error margins or tolerances. We will explain 2 such Methods Below.
In 2007, at the Pole position, was BSP led by mayawati who got, 206 seats. In 2nd position, it was SP with 96 seats with a voteshare of 25%. 3rd was BJP with 51 seats and a 17% voteshare.
But, in all this chaos, some rules tend to apply with applicable error margins or tolerances. We will explain 2 such Methods Below.
In 2007, at the Pole position, was BSP led by mayawati who got, 206 seats. In 2nd position, it was SP with 96 seats with a voteshare of 25%. 3rd was BJP with 51 seats and a 17% voteshare.
In 2012, the tables tilted. SP led in 1st position with 224 seats, voteshare around 30% again. BSP was 2nd with 80 seats and a voteshare of 26%. and BJP was 3rd with 47 seats and a voteshare of 15%.
If we average these 2 out,
the 1st position comes with a Number of (224 + 206)/2 = 215 ,
2nd position, ( 96 + 80)/2 ~ 88 seats,
3rd position, ( 51 + 47)/2 ~ 49 seats.
the 1st position comes with a Number of (224 + 206)/2 = 215 ,
2nd position, ( 96 + 80)/2 ~ 88 seats,
3rd position, ( 51 + 47)/2 ~ 49 seats.
These are the basic Tolerance markers for a predicting UP Results.
The Ratio of seats between 1,2,3 is 21 : 9 : 5 . Now, we can change that slightly since, SP is now a alliance, but we will cover that later.
So, assuming that, there are ~ 50 seats which normally go to Others. the new projection for 1:2:3 in 2017 is, 204 , 87 , 48 .
Ofcourse, in this election, INC is in an alliance with SP, so, perhaps, that 50 seats number will go down. to say, 20.
Then, the new projections will be 221 , 95 , 53 .
So,
Party No.1 will get 221 seats.
Party No.1 will get 221 seats.
Party No.2 will get 95 seats
Party No.3 will get 53 seats.
Current data suggests that, BJP will be single largest Party. So, a figure of 221 (+-) 10 seats should their figure.
UPDATE:
Can this Model predict a landslide? This will actually squeeze the 2nd and 3rd positions.
So, on a scale of 380 seats.
Party 1 will get 260 seats.
Party 2 will get 85 seats.
Party 3 will get 35 seats.
UPDATE:
Can this Model predict a landslide? This will actually squeeze the 2nd and 3rd positions.
So, on a scale of 380 seats.
Party 1 will get 260 seats.
Party 2 will get 85 seats.
Party 3 will get 35 seats.
That is one set of projection.
Let us look at an alternative projection.
Based on expected projections of pre-polls. the current data has come to light.
UP has 4 regions.
a) Western UP
b) Central UP
c) Eastern UP
d) Bundelkhand
Now, out of 19 seats for Bundelkhand let us assume 10 seats for BJP.
A new formula is being projected by me. for The rest of the regions.
BJP will win 4x seats in western UP
3x seats in central UP
6x seats in Eastern UP.
so, to reach a figure of 202. They need to win,
(4/13) * 192 in western UP i.e 60 seats,
(3/13)* 192 in central UP i.e 44 seats.
(6/13)* 192 in eastern UP i.e. 88 seats.
If Not, this will be Hung assembly.
So, we have 2 methods of predicting the numbers of UP based on some trend data.
will it 202 or (221 or 260) or lesser than that.
All this will fail ofcourse, if multiple parameters change. That is very likely. But, this is a way to do some quantitative psephology without groundwork. Number reveal more than they hide. 11th March will be a good date to test these assumptions made.
To be more precise : The above are two Models which we want to test on 11th March. Let us see, which one comes closer.
To be more precise : The above are two Models which we want to test on 11th March. Let us see, which one comes closer.
Comments